Confidential Broker Opinion of Value
APN 5845-010-017 · Eaton Fire Rebuild Site · June 2026
Since 2013, the LAAA Team has closed 460+ multifamily transactions totaling $1.47B+ in volume across Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara counties. In the aftermath of the January 2025 Eaton Fire, the team has been at the center of the Altadena rebuild market — advising owners of fire-impacted multifamily land on entitlement pathways, replacement-cost economics, and the scarcity-driven pricing that now defines this submarket.
Our practice is built on disciplined underwriting, the deepest comparable-sales dataset in the submarket, and a marketing engine that reaches every active multifamily and development buyer in Los Angeles. For 2076 Lake Avenue, that means an evidence-based opinion of value anchored in the most recent Altadena land trades, the property's confirmed like-for-like rebuild rights, and the substantial density optionality this large LCC3* lot affords.
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The LAAA Team maintains one of the most active land & development listing practices in Southern California — spanning by-right infill sites, ED1 mixed-use, RTI projects, small-lot subdivisions, and coastal rebuild opportunities across the region.
| Address | Submarket | Lot Size | Units | List Price | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3219–3249 Overland Ave | West LA | 39,640 SF | 100 | $11,995,000 | View → |
| 5151 E Arrow Hwy | Montclair / IE | 260,053 SF | 300 | $10,500,000 | View → |
| 1120–1164 W Sunset Blvd | Hollywood / East Side | 15,398 SF | 237 | $9,000,000 | View → |
| 5511 Ethel Ave | Sherman Oaks / SFV | 41,818 SF | 199 | $9,000,000 | View → |
| 2600 S Robertson Blvd | West LA (ED1) | 16,220 SF | 150 | $7,995,000 | View → |
| 4623–4631 Beverly Blvd | Mid-City / Koreatown | 21,000 SF | 121 | $5,250,000 | View → |
| 12335 Osborne Pl | Pacoima / SFV | 46,174 SF | 293 | $4,250,000 | View → |
| 601 Pearl Street | Ojai / VTA-SB | 49,658 SF | 9 | $3,700,000 | View → |
| 2338–2354 Lake Shore Ave | Hollywood / East Side | 33,541 SF | 4 | $2,800,000 | View → |
| 10425 Independence Ave | Chatsworth / SFV | 44,867 SF | 8 | $2,500,000 | View → |
| 10898 Olinda St | Sun Valley / SFV | 30,492 SF | 78 | $2,500,000 | View → |
| 5321 Riverton Ave | NoHo / SFV | 10,799 SF | 27 | $2,000,000 | View → |
| 3837 College Ave | Culver City / West LA | 7,500 SF | 21 | $2,000,000 | View → |
| 631–637 W 6th St | San Pedro / South LA | 13,798 SF | 39 | $1,800,000 | View → |
| 1431 N Vista St | Hollywood / East Side | 6,534 SF | 18 | $1,700,000 | View → |
| 646 W 6th St | San Pedro / South LA | 10,001 SF | 27 | $1,600,000 | View → |
| 6901 Woodman Ave | Van Nuys / SFV | 10,005 SF | 55 | $1,550,000 | View → |
| 302 N Pacific Ave | San Pedro / South LA | 10,424 SF | 26 | $1,500,000 | View → |
2076 Lake Avenue is an 11,915 SF parcel on Altadena's primary commercial spine, improved before the January 2025 Eaton Fire with a 3,055 SF, 3-unit triplex (built 1927). The structure was a total loss; what remains is the land — and, critically, a confirmed ministerial right to rebuild the 3 units like-for-like (plus a 10% expansion) with no discretionary hearing.
The more compelling story is what this lot can become. At 11,915 SF — more than 50% larger than most fire-rebuild parcels trading on the corridor — the site supports an estimated 10 units by right under LCC3* base density, expandable to 15 units with the State Density Bonus and up to 22 units under AB 1287. All newly constructed post-fire units are exempt from the LA County Rent Stabilization Ordinance, underwriting to market rents from day one.
The Eaton Fire destroyed an estimated 70%+ of Altadena's rental stock. A large-lot, LCC3*-zoned fire-rebuild site on Lake Avenue with confirmed rebuild rights and significant density optionality is among the scarcest assets in the submarket — and the buyer pool spans merchant developers, owner-rebuilders, and affordable-housing sponsors.
*Illustrative stabilized value of a completed 3-unit fire rebuild +10% + 3 ADUs (6 units) at a 5.00% cap; see Buildout & Value.
Altadena is an established, affluent unincorporated community at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, immediately north of Pasadena. The 1-mile trade area carries a median household income of roughly $141,758 and a median home value above $1.09M — a high-income, supply-constrained rental market well before the fire.
The subject fronts Lake Avenue, Altadena's primary north-south commercial corridor, which is actively rebuilding its retail and dining base. The location offers Metro bus access to Pasadena and the wider LA County network, proximity to Huntington Hospital and Kaiser, and is roughly two miles from Caltech and JPL — anchor employers that underpin durable rental demand.
The defining market fact is supply. The January 2025 Eaton Fire destroyed 9,400+ structures and an estimated 1,500+ rental units inside the burn perimeter — on the order of 70% of Altadena's rental stock. The result is acute, multi-year scarcity of deliverable multifamily product, concentrated exactly where the subject sits.
| Location Details | |
|---|---|
| Community | Altadena (Unincorporated LA County) |
| ZIP | 91001 |
| Median HH Income (1 mi) | $141,758 |
| Median Home Value (1 mi) | $1,093,093 |
| Population (1 mi) | 15,872 |
| Anchor Employers | Caltech, JPL, Huntington Hospital |
| Corridor | Lake Ave (primary commercial) |
| Zoning | LCC3 (Limited Commercial) |
| Site | |
|---|---|
| APN | 5845-010-017 |
| Lot Size | 11,915 SF (0.27 ac) |
| Legal | Altadena Heights Lot 8, Block 4 |
| Zoning | LCC3* (Limited Commercial) |
| Jurisdiction | LA County (Unincorporated) |
| Flood Zone | B / X (Moderate) |
| Pre-Fire Improvements | |
|---|---|
| Year Built | 1927 |
| Building SF | 3,055 (total loss) |
| Units | 3 residential (triplex) |
| Stories | 1 |
| Est. Unit Mix | 1–2 BR (~1,018 SF avg) |
| Status | Eaton Fire total loss (Jan 2025) |
| Rebuild Rights | |
|---|---|
| Like-for-Like | 3 units, ministerial |
| SF Entitlement | Up to 3,361 SF (+10%) |
| Discretionary Hearing | None required |
| Permit Pathway | County fire rebuild center (~30-day target) |
| ADU Eligible | Yes (state law) |
| Regulatory | |
|---|---|
| Rent Control (RSO) | Exempt — new construction |
| AB1482 | Exempt (<15 yrs once built) |
| Density Bonus | Up to 50% (state) |
| SB 423 Streamlining | Available (100% affordable) |
| Debris / Site Prep | County / USACE program eligible |
2076 Lake Avenue is zoned LCC3* (Limited Commercial) in unincorporated LA County — a corridor designation that permits multifamily and mixed-use residential development. The asterisk denotes a site-specific overlay; permitted uses should be verified with LA County Regional Planning. Four distinct entitlement pathways are available. They are not mutually exclusive in value: a buyer acquires the certainty of the fire-rebuild right today while retaining the optionality to pursue far greater density over a ~2-year horizon — and on an 11,915 SF lot, that density upside is the primary value driver.
The most probable and most practical pathway is the like-for-like fire rebuild of 3 units (plus the 10% SF expansion) plus 3 ADUs by state law — 6 total units, all ministerial, no discretionary hearing, no planning entitlement required. This is the fastest path to income on the site: the fire rebuild permit runs through the County’s streamlined rebuild center, and ADUs are added by right under state law with no affordability requirement. All 6 units are fully RSO-exempt as new construction. No other pathway delivers this unit count without a multi-year entitlement process.
| Pathway | Units | Affordability | Approval | Timeline | Entitlement Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Fire Rebuild (like-for-like + 10%) | 3 | None | Ministerial | Now | Lowest — confirmed right |
| 2. By-Right (LCC3* base) | ~10 | None | By-right / over-the-counter | ~1–2 yrs | Low |
| 3. State Density Bonus (up to 50%) | ~15 | 2–3 Very-Low-Income | By-right (bonus law) | ~2 yrs | Low–Moderate |
| 4. AB 1287 (stacked bonus, up to 100%) | ~20–22 | VLI + Moderate-Income tiers | By-right (bonus law) | ~2 yrs | Moderate |
| Alt: 100% Affordable (SB 423) | 22–25 | All units | Streamlined ministerial | ~2 yrs | Moderate — sponsor-specific |
| Pathway 1 — Fire Rebuild (Base Case) | |
|---|---|
| Authority | Gov. EO / County fire-rebuild program |
| Units | 3 (like-for-like) |
| Max Building SF | 3,361 (+10%) |
| Affordable Set-Aside | None |
| RSO | Exempt (new construction) |
| Why probable | Confirmed right, no hearing, available now |
| Pathway 2 — By-Right LCC3 | |
|---|---|
| Basis | LCC3 base residential density |
| Units | ~10 |
| Affordable Set-Aside | None |
| Hearing | None (by-right) |
| Use | Multifamily / mixed-use |
| Best for | Larger-unit / for-lease product |
| Pathway 3 — State Density Bonus | |
|---|---|
| Law | Gov. Code §65915 |
| Bonus | Up to 50% over base |
| Units | ~15 (12–13 market + 2–3 VLI) |
| Concessions | Incentives + parking reductions |
| Affordable | 2–3 Very-Low-Income |
| Best for | Merchant developer scaling doors |
| Pathway 4 — AB 1287 | |
|---|---|
| Law | AB 1287 (2023) — stacked bonus |
| Bonus | Up to 100% over base |
| Units | ~20–22 |
| Mechanism | Max VLI tier + additional Moderate-Income units |
| Concessions | Up to 4 incentives + waivers |
| Best for | Maximizing density on the corridor |
Unit counts are planning-level estimates based on LA County post-fire rebuild guidance, LCC3 standards, and California density-bonus law (Gov. Code §65915, as amended by AB 1287). The fire-rebuild right is confirmed; the by-right base density and resulting bonus counts must be verified with LA County Regional Planning. AB 1287's second-tier bonus requires the project to first max the base density-bonus tier before layering additional moderate-income units.
Merchant & Local Developers
Builders seeking a rebuild-entitled, RSO-exempt multifamily site with a clear by-right path and density optionality to 11+ units — the scarcest product in the post-fire market.
Owner-Rebuilders / Insurance-Funded Buyers
Displaced owners and 1031 buyers deploying insurance proceeds into a like-for-like replacement they can rebuild ministerially and hold long-term as market-rate income.
Affordable & Mission-Driven Sponsors
Nonprofit and SB 423 sponsors who can unlock 17–18 units on the parcel — the most aggressive use, and the one that supports the highest per-buildable-unit basis.
The combination of confirmed rebuild rights, RSO exemption, and three distinct density pathways broadens the buyer pool well beyond a typical raw-land trade.
"Construction costs are high right now."
True — Altadena hard costs run $300–$450/SF. The list price reflects that reality: it is set on a land-comp basis, not on a thin merchant residual, and the density-bonus and ADU pathways materially improve the per-unit basis for a developer.
"It's a fire lot — financing and insurance are hard."
The site is eligible for the County / USACE debris program and the streamlined fire-rebuild permit center. Many buyers in this market are insurance-funded or all-cash, which is reflected in the pricing and the broad buyer pool.
"Why pay near the next-door land price for a vacant lot?"
Because the adjacent 2490 Lake parcel traded at ~$115/land SF in December 2025 — and the subject is nearly double the size, carries confirmed 7-unit residential rebuild rights, and offers density upside the next-door commercial lot does not.
"The 7-unit base case barely pencils for a builder."
On a pure merchant-build residual at today's costs, correct. That is exactly why the market clears on scarcity, replacement value, and the 11–18-unit density optionality — not on a base-case-only underwrite. See the residual-land sensitivity in Buildout & Value.
| Address | Use | Lot SF | Zoning | Sale Price | $/Land SF | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2490 Lake Ave | Commercial / Office | 4,119 | LCC3 | $475,000 | $115.32 | Dec 2025 |
| 916 Marcheta St | Multifamily Land — 4-Unit Fire Rebuild (Phase 2 cleared) | 5,406 | C-3 / LCPYYY | $515,000 | $95.27 | Apr 2026 |
| 915 Beverly Way | Multifamily Land — 5-Unit Fire Rebuild (Phase 1 cleared) | 6,625 | R-3-P / LCPYYY | $590,000 | $89.09 | Aug 2025 |
| Subject implied at $115.32/land SF (11,915 SF) | $1,374,188 | — | ||||
2490 Lake Avenue — on the same Lake Avenue corridor — closed December 5, 2025 at $475,000 (APN 5845-002-015; buyer: Greenline Housing Foundation, Inc.). It is a 4,119 SF lot improved with a 1930-vintage 3,404 SF commercial/office building. With the structure carrying minimal contributory value in a post-fire commercial corridor, the trade prices effectively as land at ~$115/SF.
This is the single most relevant data point for valuing 2500 Lake: same block, same corridor, same submarket, an arm's-length close just six months ago. The subject is ~90% larger (7,840 vs 4,119 SF) and carries confirmed 7-unit residential rebuild rights — a more valuable entitlement than the next-door commercial use — though larger lots typically carry a modest per-SF discount. Additional Altadena fire-lot land comps are available on request as the post-fire market continues to establish itself.
| Address | Type | Lot SF | List Price | $/Land SF | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2450–2460 N Lake Ave | Retail Land Assemblage — 3 Standing Buildings (LCC3) | 55,321 | $9,000,000 | $162.69 | Active · DOM 312 |
| 2427 Lake Ave | Commercial Land — 1-Unit Retail Fire Rebuild (C-3 / LCC3*) | 6,050 | $1,500,000 | $247.93 | Active · DOM 63 |
| 2117 Lake Ave | Commercial Land — Former Office Fire Rebuild (C-3) | 9,077 | $895,000 | $98.59 | Active · DOM 7 |
| 2548 El Molino Ave | Multifamily Land — 10-Unit Fire Rebuild (LCC3*) | 15,810 | $1,700,000 | $107.53 | Pending |
| 2214 Windsor Ave | 54-unit mixed-use, fully permitted (LCR2*) | 46,990 | $6,250,000 | $133.01 | Escrow |
| 2068 Lake Ave | Apartment Development Site (C2 & C3) | 24,829 | $3,500,000 | $140.95 | Under Contract |
2427 Lake Avenue is the most directly relevant on-market data point: a 6,050 SF fire-rebuild commercial land parcel on the same Lake Avenue corridor, zoned C-3 / LCC3*, listed at $1,500,000 — $247.93/land SF. After 63 days on market with no reported contract, it is a clear signal that the market is not yet prepared to pay that level for un-entitled fire-rebuild land on Lake Avenue. The subject, at a recommended $800,000 ($102/SF), is priced at a 59% discount to 2427 Lake — a disciplined, evidence-based position that reflects what the comparable sales show actually trades.
2548 El Molino Avenue is a 15,810 SF vacant land parcel zoned LCC3*, currently pending at $1,700,000 — $107.53/land SF. As a pending sale rather than just an asking price, it is a meaningful signal that a buyer has agreed to a price much closer to the closed-comp range than the aspirational 2427 Lake ask, reinforcing the $89–$115/SF band the closed sales establish. Together, the active set tells a consistent story: aspirational asking prices on Lake Avenue corridor land are not clearing at $200+/SF, while the El Molino pending sale and the closed comp set anchor the subject's recommended pricing at $102/SF.
The 37 active residential land listings below are all zoned for single-family residential use (LCR175, LCR110, R-1, SFR, and similar designations) on side streets throughout Altadena — a meaningfully different profile than the subject's LCC3* commercial-corridor zoning directly on Lake Avenue. Under SB 1123, a qualifying single-family-zoned parcel in unincorporated LA County can potentially be subdivided into multiple lots, with state ADU and lot-split law layered on top — in some cases supporting up to 10 homes on a single assembled or subdivided site, subject to lot size, access, and County verification. This is a fundamentally different play than the subject: a residential subdivision strategy on a side street, versus a commercial-corridor multifamily or mixed-use rebuild directly on Lake Avenue.
| Address | Lot SF | Zoning | List Price | $/Land SF | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 Jaxine Dr | 26,403 | LCR110 | $748,000 | $28.33 | 434 |
| 114–116 Mountain View St | 11,411 | LCR175 | $995,000 | $87.20 | 407 |
| 419 W Altadena Dr | 7,552 | LCR175 | $640,000 | $84.75 | 395 |
| 3769 N Hollingsworth Rd | 6,581 | LCR110 | $599,000 | $91.05 | 353 |
| 591 Alameda St | 8,529 | R1 | $795,000 | $93.21 | 321 |
| 1663 Gaywood Dr | 23,250 | LCR120 | $1,465,000 | $63.01 | 305 |
| 820 Millard Canyon Rd | 6,921 | LCR110 | $710,000 | $102.60 | 271 |
| 912 E Altadena Dr | 13,144 | LCC3* | $1,495,000 | $113.76 | 239 |
| 242 Taos Rd | 13,485 | LCOR* | $249,000 | $18.47 | 232 |
| 294 Wapello St | 14,638 | LCR175 | $1,200,000 | $81.98 | 154 |
| 163 E Loma Alta Dr | 10,358 | LCR119 | $629,900 | $60.81 | 150 |
| 1625 E Loma Alta Dr | 16,175 | LCR120 | $695,000 | $42.97 | 149 |
| 0 Jaxine Dr | 10,157 | LCR110 | $425,000 | $41.86 | 144 |
| 3696 Chaney Trl | 28,293 | R1 | $840,000 | $29.69 | 134 |
| 2971 Emerson Way | 7,751 | LCR175 | $700,000 | $90.31 | 129 |
| 2574 Ganesha Ave | 11,037 | LCR175 | $898,000 | $81.36 | 129 |
| 461 W Loma Alta Dr | 23,137 | R1 | $990,000 | $42.78 | 116 |
| 2560 Maiden Ln | 6,471 | SFR | $600,000 | $92.72 | 96 |
| 4700 Rising Hill Rd (Parcel A) | 223,898 | LCR110 | $895,000 | $4.00 | 81 |
| 4700 Rising Hill Rd (Parcel B) | 169,884 | LCR110 | $1,095,000 | $6.45 | 81 |
| 742 E Mariposa St | 5,176 | R-1 | $650,000 | $125.58 | 80 |
| 3037 Zane Grey Ter | 19,234 | R-1 | $850,000 | $44.18 | 78 |
| 16 E Altadena Dr | 6,607 | R175 | $600,000 | $90.81 | 51 |
| 1808 E Altadena Dr | 20,451 | LCR120 | $1,350,000 | $66.02 | 44 |
| 3636 Giddings Ranch Rd | 8,921 | LCR110 | $699,000 | $78.35 | 42 |
| 27 W Palm St | 7,159 | R1 | $1,995,000 | $278.67 | 42 |
| 2879 Stonehill Dr | 10,264 | LAR175 | $168,000 | $16.37 | 39 |
| 1369 E Loma Alta Dr | 9,997 | R-1-7500 | $769,000 | $76.92 | 39 |
| 254 W Palm St | 25,206 | LCR175 | $1,200,000 | $47.62 | 28 |
| 2469 Holliston Ave | 12,852 | LCR175 | $1,299,000 | $101.07 | 28 |
| 1205 E Loma Alta Dr | 10,350 | LCR175 | $800,000 | $77.29 | 18 |
| 3383 Glenrose Ave | 14,374 | LCR175 | $799,000 | $55.59 | 15 |
| 1945 E Altadena Dr | 18,151 | R1 | $998,000 | $54.99 | 14 |
| 35 W Mariposa | 6,035 | R1 | $580,000 | $96.10 | 4 |
| 160 W Palm St | 5,521 | LCR175 | $448,000 | $81.14 | 2 |
| 1169 Boston St | 11,218 | LCR175 | $899,000 | $80.16 | 2 |
| 607 Punahou St | 6,487 | LCR175 | $467,000 | $71.99 | 1 |
Across these 37 residential listings, asking prices average roughly $73/land SF, with a wide range driven by lot size, access, and topography — several multi-acre hillside parcels (e.g. 4700 Rising Hill Rd) pull the average down, while smaller, flatter, more buildable lots cluster in the $80–$100/SF range. None of these comps front a commercial corridor, and none carry the confirmed fire-rebuild multifamily rights the subject holds — they represent a fundamentally different buyer pool (residential builders and SB 1123 subdivision plays) than the merchant developers and owner-rebuilders targeting Lake Avenue. They are included here to give a complete picture of Altadena's active land market and to underscore that the subject's commercial-corridor, multifamily-zoned position commands a meaningfully different — and generally higher — basis than side-street residential land.
The 11,915 SF LCC3* parcel supports a wide range of programs. The most streamlined and recommended path is 3 units + 3 ADUs (6 total) — all ministerial, no planning required, available now. Longer-term density pathways require entitlement but offer significant upside on this large lot. All new units are exempt from County rent control.
| Pathway | Total Units | Market | Affordable Required | Timeline | RSO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Like-for-Like Rebuild + 10% | 3 | 3 | None | Available now (ministerial) | Exempt |
| Like-for-Like + ADUs | 5–6 | 5–6 | None | Available now | Exempt |
| Build by Right (LCC3* base) | ~10 | ~10 | None | ~1–2 years | Exempt |
| By Right + 22.5% Density Bonus | ~12 | ~11 | 1–2 Very-Low-Income | ~2 years | Exempt |
| By Right + 50% Max Density Bonus | ~15 | 12–13 | 2–3 Very-Low-Income | ~2 years | Exempt |
| AB 1287 Stacked Bonus (up to 100%) | 20–22 | 15–17 | VLI + Moderate tiers | ~2 years | Exempt |
| 100% Affordable (SB 423) | 22–25 | 0 | All units | ~2 years | Exempt |
Pathways per LA County post-fire rebuild guidance and California density-bonus / SB 423 law. Buyer to verify with LA County Regional Planning.
The recommended program — 3 fire-rebuild units (with the 10% SF expansion) plus 3 ADUs by state law — is underwritten at market rents (RSO-exempt). All 6 units are ministerial with no planning entitlement required, making this the fastest path to stabilized income on the site.
| Stabilized Operations | Annual | Per Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Scheduled Rent [1] | $165,600 | $27,600 |
| Less: Vacancy (5%) | ($8,280) | ($1,380) |
| Effective Gross Income | $157,320 | $26,220 |
| Operating Expenses (~35%) [2] | ($55,062) | ($9,177) |
| Net Operating Income | $102,258 | $17,043 |
| Completed Value by Exit Cap | Value | Per Unit |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50% cap | $2,272,400 | $378,733 |
| 4.75% cap | $2,153,000 | $358,833 |
| 5.00% cap (base) | $2,045,160 | $340,860 |
| 5.25% cap | $1,947,771 | $324,629 |
| 5.50% cap | $1,859,236 | $309,873 |
[1] GSR: 3 main units — 1 × 1BR/1BA at $2,400/mo + 2 × 2BR/1BA at $3,000/mo ($8,400/mo); 3 ADUs (~450 SF each) at $1,800/mo each ($5,400/mo). Total: $13,800/mo. New construction; market rents from lease-up (RSO-exempt).
[2] OpEx: ~35% of EGI — taxes (reassessed at sale), insurance, utilities, R&M, management, reserves. New build carries the lowest maintenance tier.
ADU advantage: ADUs are built at lower marginal cost than the main building (~$250–$300/SF prefab or simplified construction) and add income with minimal added complexity — making this the most capital-efficient program on the site.
Illustrative completed value. Not an appraisal; actual results depend on the executed program, construction cost, and market conditions at delivery.
A merchant developer's residual land value = completed value − (hard + soft + carry + profit). The 6-unit program (3 rebuild + 3 ADUs) improves the residual significantly over a pure 3-unit rebuild, but at current Altadena hard costs this remains a thin-to-negative merchant trade. The most likely buyers are owner-rebuilders and long-term holders who do not require a full developer profit margin.
| Residual Build-Up (6-Unit, ~4,861 SF, 5.00% exit) | @ $325/SF Hard | @ $375/SF Hard | @ $425/SF Hard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completed Value | $2,045,160 | $2,045,160 | $2,045,160 |
| Less: Hard Costs | ($1,579,825) | ($1,822,875) | ($2,065,925) |
| Less: Soft Costs (15% of hard) | ($236,974) | ($273,431) | ($309,889) |
| Less: Site Prep / Debris Contingency | ($75,000) | ($75,000) | ($75,000) |
| Less: Financing & Carry (~18 mo) | ($185,000) | ($185,000) | ($185,000) |
| Less: Developer Profit (12% of value) | ($245,419) | ($245,419) | ($245,419) |
| Indicated Residual Land Value | ($277,058) | ($556,565) | ($836,073) |
The residual remains negative across all cost scenarios at a 5.00% exit, confirming this is an owner-rebuilder and long-term income play rather than a merchant-build trade. An owner-rebuilder deploying insurance proceeds who holds the 6-unit stabilized property as a long-term asset — and does not require a developer profit margin — is the natural marginal buyer. Pricing is anchored in land comps and the scarcity of ministerial-path multifamily sites on the Lake Avenue corridor.
| Subject & Recommendation | |
|---|---|
| Lot Size | 11,915 SF (0.27 ac) |
| Zoning | LCC3* |
| Units, Fire Rebuild | 3 (ministerial) |
| By-Right Potential | ~10 units |
| Density Upside | 15–22 units |
| Suggested List Price | $1,000,000 |
| Implied Pricing Metrics | |
|---|---|
| $ / Land SF | $83.93 |
| $ / Buildable Unit (3) | $333,333 |
| $ / Unit at 10 (By-Right) | $100,000 |
| $ / Unit at 15 (Density Bonus) | $66,667 |
| $ / Unit at 22 (AB 1287) | $45,455 |
| Benchmarks | |
|---|---|
| Next-Door Sale (2490 Lake, Dec '25) | $115.32/SF |
| Permitted Site (2214 Windsor) | $133.01/SF |
| Permitted Site, $/unit | $115,741 |
| Subject vs Next-Door $/SF | −27.2% |
| Subject vs Windsor $/SF | −36.9% |
| Supporting Lenses | |
|---|---|
| Completed Value (6-unit best use, 5.00%) | $2,045,160 |
| List as % of Completed Value | 48.9% |
| Est. By-Right Value (~10 units, 5.00%) | ~$4,100,000 |
| Residual (6-unit @ $325/SF) | ($277,058) |
| List Price | $/Land SF | $/Unit (3) | $/Unit (10 By-Right) | $/Unit (15 DB) | $/Unit (22 AB1287) | vs Avg Comp $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800,000 | $67.14 | $266,667 | $80,000 | $53,333 | $36,364 | −32.8% |
| $850,000 | $71.34 | $283,333 | $85,000 | $56,667 | $38,636 | −28.6% |
| $900,000 | $75.53 | $300,000 | $90,000 | $60,000 | $40,909 | −24.4% |
| $950,000 | $79.73 | $316,667 | $95,000 | $63,333 | $43,182 | −20.2% |
| $1,000,000 | $83.93 | $333,333 | $100,000 | $66,667 | $45,455 | −16.0% |
| $1,050,000 | $88.13 | $350,000 | $105,000 | $70,000 | $47,727 | −11.8% |
| $1,100,000 | $92.33 | $366,667 | $110,000 | $73,333 | $50,000 | −7.6% |
| $1,150,000 | $96.52 | $383,333 | $115,000 | $76,667 | $52,273 | −3.4% |
The recommended list price of $1,000,000 is grounded in the comp set and appropriately discounted for the subject's lot size. On land comps, $83.93/land SF represents a 16% discount to the three-comp average of $99.89/SF — a discount that reflects the reality that larger lots trade at a lower per-SF price due to a smaller buyer pool and higher absolute capital requirement, while the subject's LCC3* corridor zoning, Lake Avenue frontage, and ministerial 6-unit (3+3 ADU) path argue against a deeper discount. On a per-buildable-unit basis, $100,000 per by-right unit (10 units) sits just below the fully-permitted Windsor benchmark of $115,741/unit — appropriate for an un-entitled site — and drops to $66,667 at 15 units under the density bonus. On completed value, the price is 48.9% of the 6-unit stabilized value of $2,045,160 at a 5.00% cap, leaving ample room for an owner-rebuilder deploying insurance proceeds to fund construction and build meaningful equity. At $1,000,000 the subject is priced at a significant discount to the aspirational 2427 Lake Ave asking price of $247.93/SF — evidence that this is a realistic, market-anchored number.
The price is positioned to attract a broad buyer pool while reflecting market reality: it is squarely in the range where Altadena multifamily fire-rebuild land has actually traded, adjusted for lot size, with the 6-unit ministerial program providing a clear, entitlement-risk-free path to income. We would expect strong interest from owner-rebuilders, insurance-funded buyers, and long-term income investors, with a likely trade price in the $875,000–$1,100,000 range within a standard 60–90 day marketing window.
Parcel map of the 5-lot assemblage spanning the subject and the adjacent Holcomb and Georgiades-owned parcels.
Our recommendation is to approach the Holcomb family, who own the parcels immediately to the north, and the Georgiades family, who own the parcels immediately to the south, to explore bringing all three ownership groups to market together as a joint listing. Combined, the assemblage totals 5 lots, all zoned C3, for a combined 61,476 SF — a scale that would be far more attractive to merchant developers and institutional buyers than any single parcel sold in isolation. We believe it supports a combined asking basis of $150 per square foot, or approximately $9,221,400 in the aggregate — a meaningful premium to the subject's standalone pricing that reflects the value created by a larger, more efficient, uniformly-zoned development site.